The Statistical Office in Bydgoszcz, in cooperation with the Statistical Office in Łódź, published updated data regarding the number of registered unemployed people in Poland for the years 2011–2026. The new edition of the time series, covering the period from January 2011 to September 2026, incorporates the renewal of seasonal adjustment models. The introduced corrections mean that previous statistical publications have been modified to ensure data comparability over a longer time horizon. The publication takes place within the regular monthly cycle of providing labor market information.
Methodological changes and data scope
According to the GUS announcement, the data changes were dictated by the need to renew the mathematical models used for seasonal adjustment. This procedure was carried out using the TRAMO/SEATS method within the JDEMETRA+ package, version 2.2.2. Seasonal adjustment aims to eliminate regular, annual deviations from the trend, as well as, in appropriate cases, calendar effects and the impact of the number of working days on statistical results. This reduces the noise resulting from seasonal cyclicality, facilitating the analysis of long-term trends in the labor market.
The available time series presents monthly data for the entire territory of Poland. The observation period ranges from January 2011 to September 2026. It is worth noting that this publication focuses on the number of people registered as unemployed, in accordance with the definition adopted in registered statistics. It includes individuals who are over 18 years old, have not reached retirement age, are unemployed, are able and willing to work, are registered at the appropriate county labor office, and are actively seeking employment.
Trends in the number of unemployed
Analyzing the published data, significant changes in the scale of registered unemployed people can be observed during the study period. In January 2011, a value of 1,965.8 thousand people was recorded. Projected or estimated results for September 2026 indicate a drop to a level of 924.4 thousand people. Although this data is seasonally adjusted, allowing for the comparison of results between different periods of the year without distortions resulting from typical seasonal fluctuations, its interpretation requires consideration of the broader economic context.
It is worth noting that a general downward trend in the number of unemployed was recorded between 2011 and 2019, which was interrupted by a series of anomalies observed in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, after initial declines, the number of registered unemployed increased, reaching 1,056.1 thousand people in June. Subsequently, in 2022–2024, the data showed stabilization or a slight decrease, to again indicate a year-on-year upward trend in 2025 and 2026, which is reflected in the forecasted values for the upcoming months of 2026.